Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EB 0xebb5…7173 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$632 (-12%) realized −$649 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$263
7 days−$360
14 days−$719
30 days−$715
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$261
sports 15% −$317
politics 11% +$73
world 3% −$150
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -25.0% -32.1% 38% 38% -31.8%
≤30d 29 -18.8% -26.5% 45% 45% -32.1%
≤90d 31 -14.7% -22.8% 48% 45% -30.1%
all 37 -17.7% -25.5% 49% 41% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 41% -24.0%
10% -32.7% 35% -31.3%
15% -39.2% 35% -37.9%
20% -45.1% 19% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$80 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$1,217
Realized−$649
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage592d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1,000 $1,008 +$8 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$37 -73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $53 −$7 -12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$82 +41%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $56 +$28 +50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$47 -46%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $71 +$50 +71%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $9 −$6 -61%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $150 −$82 -55%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $203 −$152 -75%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference? Jun 13 $491 −$491 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $102 +$43 +42%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $103 +$11 +11%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $112 −$75 -67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $54 +$85 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $201 +$89 +44%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 05 $30 +$4 +14%
Will the Janata Dal (Secular) (JD(S)) win the most seats in the 2026 K May 04 $21 +$2 +8%
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 May 04 $55 +$44 +80%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 mi Feb 15 $500 +$27 +5%
Solana Up or Down - July 26, 9AM ET Jul 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Another Israel strike on Yemen by Friday? Jul 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Punjab Kings vs. Royal Challengers Bangalore Jun 03 $99 +$90 +91%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $531 +$27 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $22 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $56 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $56 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 5d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $68 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $68 5d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 15¢ $50 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,216.82 · official $1,216.76 (match) · 117 history records