Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EB
0xebb4…408e
politics · 194 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$40 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$45 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses56 / 134
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)190 / 194
History coverage97d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 4 History 190 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$7
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $35 $0 -1%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $19 $0 -1%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 11 $22 −$1 -5%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 10 $17 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1AM ET Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $65 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $9 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $28 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 46% −$5
other 27% −$6
crypto 11% −$1
world 10% −$32
sports 5% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 1h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $10 3h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $5 5h
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $6 5h
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $6 9h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $7 10h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $7 13h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 15h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 15h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 15h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 15h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 17h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 17h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 34h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 34h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $6 36h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $5 42h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 87¢ $5 42h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $5 43h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 2d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $6 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 83 -0.7% -10.1% 5% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 155 -0.9% -10.3% 23% 0% -11.0%
all 190 -0.8% -10.2% 29% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -19.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -27.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.98 · official $22.98 (match) · 941 history records