trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $36 | $36 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 08 | $70 | $0 | -0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 08 | $5 | $0 | -4% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 07 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 07 | $32 | −$1 | -2% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 06 | $33 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 05 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? | Jul 15 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? | Jun 27 | $8 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | May 18 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | May 17 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? | May 17 | $8 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | May 16 | $14 | −$5 | -37% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 14 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 20 | $1 | $0 | -13% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? | Mar 20 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 0% | 0% | -10.1% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 0% | 0% | -10.1% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 0% | 0% | -10.1% |
| all | 16 | -2.9% | -12.2% | 44% | 0% | -11.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.2% | 0% | -11.2% |
| 10% | -20.6% | 0% | -19.7% |
| 15% | -28.2% | 0% | -27.4% |
| 20% | -35.3% | 0% | -34.5% |