Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xebae…f7b1 crypto 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$456 (+3%) realized +$476 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%51W / 32L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$460
7 days+$433
14 days+$433
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$140
sports 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +5.4% -4.6% 62% 61% -5.8%
≤30d 83 -0.9% -10.4% 61% 57% -8.4%
≤90d 83 -0.9% -10.4% 61% 57% -8.4%
all 83 -0.9% -10.4% 61% 57% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 57% -8.4%
10% -18.9% 36% -17.2%
15% -26.8% 19% -25.2%
20% -33.9% 16% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$90 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$476
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses51 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage23d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France to score first vs. Senegal? Yes 69¢ 55¢ $96 $76 −$20 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $204 +$86 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $66 −$65 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $205 +$74 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $204 +$65 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $514 +$282 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $267 −$240 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $82 +$45 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $203 +$35 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $313 +$413 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $361 −$300 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $204 +$46 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $123 −$120 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $215 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $224 +$16 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $213 −$10 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $213 +$52 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $112 +$30 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $112 +$39 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $214 +$52 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $112 +$16 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $121 +$17 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $316 +$100 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $132 +$28 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $272 +$25 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$40 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $924 −$900 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $409 −$400 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $508 +$126 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $630 +$118 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $619 +$451 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $508 +$136 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $508 +$76 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $346 +$103 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $507 +$63 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $204 +$58 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $92 −$15 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $203 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $162 +$31 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $142 +$25 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $111 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $75 +$39 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $204 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $66 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $279 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $269 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $204 1h
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 69¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $796 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $308 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 1h
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 70¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.65 · official $70.09 · 270 history records