trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +4.6% | -5.3% | 86% | 14% | -9.1% |
| ≤30d | 16 | +5.0% | -5.0% | 88% | 6% | -5.0% |
| ≤90d | 16 | +5.0% | -5.0% | 88% | 6% | -5.0% |
| all | 16 | +5.0% | -5.0% | 88% | 6% | -5.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -5.0% | 6% | -5.0% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -14.1% | 0% | -14.1% |
| 15% | -22.4% | 0% | -22.4% |
| 20% | -30.0% | 0% | -30.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | $4,775 | $4,814 | +$39 (+1%) |
| Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 90¢ | 98¢ | $4,195 | $4,561 | +$366 (+9%) |
| Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 91¢ | 98¢ | $3,880 | $4,215 | +$335 (+9%) |
| Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 97¢ | 96¢ | $3,000 | $2,988 | −$12 (-0%) |
| Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $1,823 | $1,819 | −$4 (-0%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 77¢ | 96¢ | $1,160 | $1,438 | +$278 (+24%) |
| Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 96¢ | 95¢ | $791 | $781 | −$9 (-1%) |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 88¢ | 95¢ | $16 | $17 | +$1 (+8%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 21 | $190 | +$10 | +5% |
| Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 20 | $3,532 | +$315 | +9% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? | Jun 20 | $455 | +$40 | +9% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? | Jun 20 | $1,196 | +$91 | +8% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $1,527 | +$168 | +11% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 18 | $5,233 | −$636 | -12% |
| Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 15 | $3,017 | +$87 | +3% |
| Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $1,053 | +$46 | +4% |
| Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? | Jun 13 | $2,956 | +$172 | +6% |
| Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? | Jun 13 | $4,790 | +$210 | +4% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | Jun 12 | $698 | −$18 | -3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | Jun 10 | $8,980 | +$882 | +10% |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? | Jun 05 | $1,860 | +$96 | +5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Jun 01 | $7,377 | +$515 | +7% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? | May 29 | $4,950 | +$366 | +7% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? | May 27 | $4,982 | +$281 | +6% |