Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xebab…cee0 other 53 markets active 6h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$131 (-5%) realized −$106 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$697now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$67
14 days−$155
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$102
other 41% −$58
sports 3% −$25
crypto 2% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -16.5% -24.4% 47% 27% -0.2%
≤30d 21 -16.4% -24.4% 43% 29% -19.4%
≤90d 21 -16.4% -24.4% 43% 29% -19.4%
all 21 -16.4% -24.4% 43% 29% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 29% -19.4%
10% -31.6% 29% -27.1%
15% -38.2% 29% -34.2%
20% -44.3% 19% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$25 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$697
Realized−$106
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions32
Markets (closed)21 / 53
History coverage19d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $82 $77 −$5 (-6%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $83 $68 −$15 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $32 $49 +$17 (+52%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $38 $34 −$4 (-11%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+5%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $16 $21 +$5 (+32%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-13%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+10%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-21%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 58¢ 64¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 13¢ 14¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $34 +$17 +49%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 16 $134 +$112 +84%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +50%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $91 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $73 −$6 -8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 13 $73 −$12 -17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 13 $38 +$1 +4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $2 $0 -19%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 11 $141 +$3 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 09 $631 −$202 -32%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the May 31 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 30 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 30 $5 +$9 +173%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 5h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 5h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 12¢ $13 6h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 6h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 12¢ $21 6h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 10¢ $38 7h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 7h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 7h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 7h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 7h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 17¢ $4 7h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre SELL Yes 9¢ $108 7h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 15h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 10¢ $1 16h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 10¢ $1 17h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 9¢ $1 20h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 9¢ $1 20h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 9¢ $1 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $696.72 · official $696.86 (match) · 302 history records