Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:32:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeba9…4296 other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-42%) realized −$20 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$70
sports 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.2% -7.5% 50% 50% -71.2%
≤30d 2 +2.2% -7.5% 50% 50% -71.2%
≤90d 2 +2.2% -7.5% 50% 50% -71.2%
all 2 +2.2% -7.5% 50% 50% -71.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 50% -71.2%
10% -16.3% 50% -73.9%
15% -24.4% 50% -76.4%
20% -31.8% 50% -78.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$50 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 20¢ $48 $18 −$30 (-62%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 +$10 +104%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 17m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 55m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $19 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.90 · official $27.90 (match) · 6 history records