Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:12:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeba8…521f other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate4%5W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$14
politics 39% −$15
sports 4% −$17
economics 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 110 -2.6% -11.9% 3% 2% -9.7%
all 121 -3.8% -13.0% 4% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 2% -9.7%
10% -21.3% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.9% 1% -26.2%
20% -35.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×9.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses5 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage117d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $364 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $250 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $249 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $342 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $461 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $171 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $179 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $171 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $203 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $208 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $212 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $206 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $190 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $189 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $185 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $175 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $628 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 15 $198 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $221 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $171 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $187 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $185 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $217 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 10 $201 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $209 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $186 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $161 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $222 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $782 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $206 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $228 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $192 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 04 $168 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $174 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 04 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $167 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $648 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 45h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 47h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 9d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 9d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 13d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 13d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 14d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 15d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 15d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 16d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $20 16d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $20 17d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 17d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 18d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 18d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 21d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 21d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 21d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 22d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.02 · official $65.02 (match) · 364 history records