Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:42:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EB 0xeba2…5570 crypto 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$48 (+4%) realized +$27 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$55
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$23
sports 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +31.0% +18.5% 40% 40% -15.3%
≤30d 25 +31.0% +18.5% 40% 40% -15.3%
≤90d 25 +31.0% +18.5% 40% 40% -15.3%
all 38 +26.3% +14.3% 42% 42% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.3% 42% -10.3%
10% +3.3% 42% -18.9%
15% -6.6% 39% -26.7%
20% -15.8% 39% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$33 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage132d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 48¢ 62¢ $73 $94 +$21 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $78 −$55 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$61 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $62 +$71 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$52 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$31 +295%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$38 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$16 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $32 +$126 +397%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$65 +310%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$34 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) Feb 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Feb 13 $11 +$29 +268%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Feb 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Feb 13 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Feb 13 $20 +$50 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Feb 13 $20 −$17 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Feb 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Feb 13 $27 +$40 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Feb 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Feb 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 13 $44 +$27 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Feb 13 $50 +$44 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Feb 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $11 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $23 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.70 · official $87.16 · 168 history records