Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:34:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EB 0xeba1…838b sports 626 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10,011 (+4%) realized +$10,148 · open −$137
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate84%509W / 96L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day52.1pace
Fees−$687est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$3,982now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$790
14 days+$1,121
30 days+$3,204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$9,188
other 6% +$251
economics 1% +$50
politics 0% +$8
crypto 0% −$1
finance 0% +$2
world 0% −$72
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +5.2% -4.8% 95% 20% -5.9%
≤30d 130 +7.7% -2.6% 92% 26% -3.8%
≤90d 605 +4.0% -5.9% 84% 26% -5.6%
all 605 +4.0% -5.9% 84% 26% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 26% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 14% -14.6%
15% -23.1% 8% -22.9%
20% -30.7% 6% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$100 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$3,982
Realized+$10,148
Unrealized−$137
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses509 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$687
Open positions31
Markets (closed)605 / 626
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$361
Trades / day52.1
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 605 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Overwatch: Falcons vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Falcons 98¢ 98¢ $543 $543 +$0 (+0%)
Overwatch: O2 Blast vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Crazy Raccoon 98¢ 98¢ $532 $532 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? No 85¢ 77¢ $537 $486 −$51 (-10%)
Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $325 $326 +$0 (+0%)
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $272 $291 +$19 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $230 $228 −$1 (-0%)
Overwatch: Falcons vs O2 Blast (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Falcons 95¢ 96¢ $191 $193 +$2 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 98¢ 99¢ $171 $172 +$1 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 98¢ 99¢ $169 $171 +$2 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 98¢ 99¢ $168 $169 +$1 (+0%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 97¢ 98¢ $143 $145 +$2 (+2%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 98¢ 99¢ $121 $122 +$1 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 99¢ 52¢ $99 $51 −$47 (-48%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Overwatch: ZETA DIVISION vs Poker Face - Game 1 Winner ZETA DIVISION 96¢ 97¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Overwatch: Falcons vs SuperBad - Game 1 Winner Falcons 95¢ 97¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+2%)
Overwatch: ZETA DIVISION vs Poker Face (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage ZETA DIVISION 95¢ 97¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+2%)
Overwatch: ZETA DIVISION vs Poker Face - Game 2 Winner ZETA DIVISION 97¢ 97¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+4%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 68¢ 28¢ $68 $28 −$40 (-59%)
Overwatch: Lazuli vs ENTER FORCE.36 (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage ENTER FORCE.36 91¢ 94¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Overwatch: Falcons vs SuperBad - Game 2 Winner Falcons 92¢ 97¢ $22 $24 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $467 $0 +0%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Overwatch: VARREL vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 15 $109 +$1 +1%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $517 +$15 +3%
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 15 $383 +$14 +4%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $395 +$37 +9%
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 15 $278 +$102 +37%
Will Team Liquid win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 +$10 +156%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,876 +$124 +7%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $68 +$2 +3%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2,694 +$33 +1%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $766 +$114 +15%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $158 +$2 +1%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $4,919 +$48 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $119 +$2 +1%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $95 +$14 +14%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $551 +$48 +9%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$5 +9%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,448 +$264 +18%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $156 +$3 +2%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $281 −$281 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $232 +$15 +6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $78 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O Jun 13 $152 +$33 +22%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $405 +$95 +24%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $185 +$18 +10%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $184 +$6 +3%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $171 +$6 +4%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Vitality drop from #1 in the VRS rankings by June 30? Jun 12 $1,073 +$17 +2%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $993 +$49 +5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $127 +$13 +10%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $154 +$5 +3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $129 +$1 +1%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $11 +$1 +10%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 11 $71 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $39 +$11 +29%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs mCon esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $76 +$13 +17%
Game Handicap: FEC (-2.5) vs mCon esports (+2.5) Jun 07 $27 +$5 +20%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playo Jun 07 $2,543 +$113 +4%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs mCon esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $391 +$40 +10%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $48 −$24 -50%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $166 +$3 +2%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $134 +$2 +1%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $164 +$30 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $16 41m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $153 42m
Overwatch: ZETA DIVISION vs ZANSIDE GAMING (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 G BUY ZETA DIVISION 97¢ $22 57m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $100 57m
Overwatch: Lazuli vs ENTER FORCE.36 (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group St BUY ENTER FORCE.36 91¢ $5 1h
Overwatch: Lazuli vs ENTER FORCE.36 (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group St BUY ENTER FORCE.36 93¢ $5 1h
Overwatch: Lazuli vs ENTER FORCE.36 (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group St BUY ENTER FORCE.36 91¢ $16 1h
Overwatch: O2 Blast vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group S BUY Crazy Raccoon 97¢ $42 1h
Overwatch: Falcons vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Falcons 98¢ $490 1h
Overwatch: O2 Blast vs Crazy Raccoon (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group S BUY Crazy Raccoon 98¢ $490 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $168 1h
Overwatch: Falcons vs SuperBad - Game 2 Winner BUY Falcons 92¢ $17 1h
Overwatch: Falcons vs SuperBad - Game 1 Winner BUY Falcons 95¢ $5 1h
Overwatch: Falcons vs SuperBad - Game 1 Winner BUY Falcons 95¢ $38 1h
Overwatch: Falcons vs SuperBad - Game 2 Winner BUY Falcons 91¢ $5 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $19 1h
Overwatch: ZETA DIVISION vs Poker Face - Game 1 Winner BUY ZETA DIVISION 96¢ $47 1h
Overwatch: ZETA DIVISION vs Poker Face - Game 2 Winner BUY ZETA DIVISION 97¢ $16 1h
Overwatch: ZETA DIVISION vs Poker Face - Game 2 Winner BUY ZETA DIVISION 97¢ $16 1h
Overwatch: ZETA DIVISION vs Poker Face - Game 2 Winner BUY ZETA DIVISION 96¢ $11 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $143 1h
Overwatch: ZETA DIVISION vs Poker Face (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group BUY ZETA DIVISION 95¢ $43 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $102 1h
Overwatch: Falcons vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Falcons 97¢ $12 1h
Overwatch: Falcons vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Falcons 97¢ $41 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $171 1h
Overwatch: Falcons vs O2 Blast (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Falcons 96¢ $77 3h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $61 18h
Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? BUY Yes 96¢ $9 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,981.67 · official $3,981.67 (match) · 3500 history records