Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:42:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb9c…a6d9 politics 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$350per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$23
politics 34% −$17
sports 6% +$56
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% $0
tech 1% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 76 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 115 +5.0% -5.0% 10% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 6% -9.5%
10% -14.1% 6% -18.2%
15% -22.4% 4% -26.1%
20% -30.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×9.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)115 / 115
History coverage129d
Avg bet$350
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 115 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $317 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $263 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $335 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 17 $283 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $325 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 13 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $265 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $277 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $260 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $273 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $318 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $255 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $1,409 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 28 $315 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $347 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 21 $304 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $334 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $252 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $339 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 18 $266 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $847 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $277 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $319 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $323 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $257 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $284 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $307 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 16h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 16h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 9d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 9d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 11d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 12d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $43 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 14d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $263 14d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $263 26d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $335 28d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $335 28d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $326 28d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $326 30d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $258 31d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $258 33d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $283 33d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $283 34d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $347 34d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $347 34d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $256 35d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $257 37d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $325 37d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $325 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 360 history records