Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:17:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb9b…5545 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$503 (-25%) realized −$501 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$43
sports 13% −$250
crypto 3% +$43
weather 1% −$11
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-50.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -44.8% -50.1% 35% 35% -21.3%
≤30d 20 -44.8% -50.1% 35% 35% -21.3%
≤90d 20 -44.8% -50.1% 35% 35% -21.3%
all 20 -44.8% -50.1% 35% 35% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.1% 35% -21.3%
10% -54.8% 30% -28.9%
15% -59.2% 30% -35.7%
20% -63.2% 20% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$73 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$501
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage7d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $465 +$236 +51%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $203 +$262 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $131 +$72 +55%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 21 $4 −$3 -96%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 22? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 22? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$43 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $56 +$7 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$16 +40%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $603 −$587 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $256 −$250 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $96 −$95 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 98¢ $701 1h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? BUY Yes $1 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $465 27h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY Yes $3 32h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY Yes $0 33h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $203 33h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 27¢ $4 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $131 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 20? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 19? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 19? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $56 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $346 6d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $256 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $257 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $96 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.10 · official $4.10 (match) · 34 history records