Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EB 0xeb9b…cdf5 sports 9 markets active 4d ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$20 (+32%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$13
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +42.5% +29.0% 75% 75% +18.0%
≤30d 9 +33.1% +20.4% 78% 67% +17.5%
≤90d 9 +33.1% +20.4% 78% 67% +17.5%
all 9 +33.1% +20.4% 78% 67% +17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.4% 67% +17.5%
10% +8.9% 67% +6.3%
15% -1.7% 56% -4.0%
20% -11.3% 22% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×20.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×72.19 per $1 lost it wins $72.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage22d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 +$4 +67%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $10 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $7 +$3 +36%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 +$5 +46%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $10 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records