Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EB 0xeb99…0730 sports 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,673 (+2%) realized +$1,406 · open +$267
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate44%71W / 89L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$517per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2,845now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$253
7 days+$881
14 days+$1,330
30 days+$1,625
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$416
politics 18% +$13
other 12% +$983
culture 6% −$31
tech 5% −$115
world 2% +$342
economics 2% −$10
finance 1% −$14
crypto 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +16.4% +5.4% 58% 40% -7.1%
≤30d 85 +14.4% +3.5% 65% 44% -6.2%
≤90d 115 +12.7% +1.9% 57% 37% -7.1%
all 160 +7.4% -2.9% 44% 27% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.9% 27% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -12.2% 21% -16.9%
15% -20.7% 16% -24.9%
20% -28.4% 13% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$25 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$2,845
Realized+$1,406
Unrealized+$267
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses71 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions8
Markets (closed)160 / 171
History coverage99d
Avg bet$517
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $365 $562 +$198 (+54%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $476 $517 +$41 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $538 $502 −$36 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $485 $487 +$2 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $336 $399 +$64 (+19%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $197 $173 −$24 (-12%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 67¢ $164 $134 −$30 (-18%)
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 19¢ $18 $71 +$53 (+286%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $396 −$92 -23%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $849 +$1 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 −$16 -52%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$1 -6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $153 +$3 +2%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $799 +$1 +0%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $21 +$19 +89%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$18 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $198 +$102 +52%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $147 +$21 +14%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $69 +$31 +45%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $117 +$33 +28%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$78 +154%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$77 +152%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $515 −$115 -22%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $51 +$36 +70%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $27 +$73 +276%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $154 +$26 +17%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $49 +$56 +114%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $38 −$21 -54%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 +$17 +69%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $40 −$39 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$17 +32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $54 +$46 +86%
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $187 +$66 +36%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $77 −$76 -99%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $630 +$87 +14%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $103 −$23 -23%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2,277 +$23 +1%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 13 $3,300 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $79 +$21 +26%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $114 −$27 -23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 13 $51 +$170 +332%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2,609 +$3 +0%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $14 $0 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3,486 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on Jun 12 $532 +$4 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on Jun 12 $2,657 +$8 +0%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $98 −$40 -41%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $272 −$41 -15%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 12 $7,135 $0 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $42 +$58 +138%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $2,112 +$2 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $104 +$46 +44%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $451 +$20 +4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $82 −$16 -20%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $773 −$91 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 76¢ $4 57m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 76¢ $300 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $396 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 100¢ $849 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 19¢ $15 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $31 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 47¢ $19 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $18 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 49¢ $0 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 49¢ $19 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $19 4h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $154 5h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 5h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 5h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $799 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 53¢ $21 8h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 8h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 8h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 8h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 8h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 8h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 8h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $90 8h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $101 8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $109 11h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $59 11h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $147 14h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $29 22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $2 22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $22 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,845.08 · official $2,845.08 (match) · 1658 history records