trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 9 | +17.5% | +6.3% | 78% | 22% | -10.0% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +14.8% | +3.9% | 82% | 18% | -9.7% |
| all | 24 | +10.2% | -0.3% | 62% | 25% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -0.3% | 25% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -9.8% | 21% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -18.5% | 21% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -26.5% | 21% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? | No | 0¢ | 98¢ | $0 | $98 | +$98 (+0%) |
| Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? | Jun 11 | $65 | +$153 | +233% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | Jun 09 | $195 | −$195 | -100% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me | Jun 09 | $894 | +$4 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | Jun 08 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | Jun 08 | $4 | +$1 | +14% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | Jun 08 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? | Jun 03 | $96 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 29 | $810 | +$27 | +3% |
| Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 | May 29 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee | May 18 | $102 | +$5 | +5% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Mar 31 | $102 | +$1 | +1% |
| Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Jan 28 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Dec 28 | $6 | $0 | -2% |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | Dec 10 | $2 | −$2 | -68% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Oct 31 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 31 | $29 | +$1 | +4% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 18 | $13 | +$19 | +144% |
| Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking? | Jul 31 | $4 | +$9 | +203% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? | Apr 30 | $3 | −$2 | -69% |
| Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? | Mar 19 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Dec 31 | $8 | +$7 | +88% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 08 | $3,024 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election? | Nov 01 | $5 | +$4 | +82% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Sep 26 | $9,169 | +$3 | +0% |