Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EB 0xeb95…9b8d sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$118 (+8%) realized +$119 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$517
14 days+$107
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$107
other 10% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +62.3% +46.8% 83% 83% +46.2%
≤30d 10 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 50% -1.7%
≤90d 10 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 50% -1.7%
all 10 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 50% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 50% -1.7%
10% -20.3% 50% -11.1%
15% -28.0% 50% -19.7%
20% -35.1% 50% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$110 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$119
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage11d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $140 $139 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $145 −$143 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $152 +$148 +97%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $145 +$135 +93%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $140 +$130 +93%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $135 +$131 +97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $124 +$116 +93%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $134 −$132 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $103 −$102 -99%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $91 −$90 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $86 −$85 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $142 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $145 27h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $152 39h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $145 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $140 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $135 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $124 6d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $134 7d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $103 9d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $91 10d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $86 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.60 · official $138.60 (match) · 16 history records