Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EB 0xeb93…294a sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$77 (+4%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate61%25W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$22
other 44% +$28
politics 10% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +3.4% -6.4% 75% 17% -6.2%
≤30d 22 +23.7% +11.9% 73% 27% -2.0%
≤90d 41 +5.9% -4.2% 61% 27% -6.5%
all 41 +5.9% -4.2% 61% 27% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 27% -6.5%
10% -13.3% 20% -15.4%
15% -21.7% 15% -23.6%
20% -29.4% 10% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses25 / 16
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage45d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $75 +$1 +2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -6%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 −$1 -2%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $74 +$2 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $142 +$3 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $66 +$5 +8%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 +$10 +18%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $54 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 +$1 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $50 −$2 -3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 01 $109 +$6 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $98 −$8 -8%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $83 +$35 +41%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $84 −$1 -1%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 31 $112 −$80 -71%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $157 +$84 +53%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $78 +$2 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Jong vs Zverev May 31 $53 +$25 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Co May 31 $10 +$42 +408%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 09 $40 −$40 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner May 09 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 09 $1 $0 +30%
Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral elec May 09 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Jason Perry win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral electi May 09 $7 +$19 +270%
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral elec May 06 $18 −$17 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $40 +$1 +2%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport - Game 1 Winner May 06 $8 +$1 +11%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Esprit Shōnen - Game 2 Winner May 06 $16 +$5 +29%
Will Mehmood Mirza win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral elect May 06 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 06 $22 $0 +1%
Valorant: Division One vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner May 05 $9 −$4 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 04 $4 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 04 $1 $0 -16%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs paiN Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club L May 04 $1 $0 +2%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North Amer May 04 $6 −$1 -22%
Valorant: Mandatory vs F9 EICAR (BO3) - VCL France: Revolution Stage 2 May 03 $12 −$2 -18%
Valorant: Mandatory vs F9 EICAR - Map 2 Winner May 03 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 95¢ $76 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $75 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $4 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 90¢ $75 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $76 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 96¢ $76 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $74 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $71 46h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 95¢ $71 46h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $66 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $66 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $56 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 97¢ $54 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-0 BUY 54¢ $70 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 94¢ $70 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 95¢ $71 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $54 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $71 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 83¢ $49 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $50 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $50 9d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $50 9d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 16d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 39¢ $105 17d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 33¢ $109 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev SELL Jakub Mensik 67¢ $67 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev SELL Andrey Rublev 24¢ $23 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Jakub Mensik 81¢ $15 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 28¢ $6 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $68.95 · 111 history records