Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EB 0xeb92…ed1a politics 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%2W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$935per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$86
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$120
other 3% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -1.8% -11.2% 18% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 29 -0.8% -10.2% 7% 0% -9.9%
all 29 -0.8% -10.2% 7% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$980) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage72d
Avg bet$935
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 26? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $47 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $434 −$83 -19%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $944 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $945 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $946 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $947 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,923 −$3 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $951 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $957 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $1,929 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $960 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $960 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 12 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $966 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $965 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,949 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $979 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $980 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $980 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $984 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $47 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $42 47h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $859 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $861 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $860 9d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $861 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $351 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $434 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $943 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $944 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $944 16d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $945 17d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $945 21d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $946 22d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $945 23d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $947 24d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $949 25d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $950 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $949 28d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $951 29d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $949 30d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $951 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $956 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $957 33d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $956 34d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $957 35d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $957 36d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $959 37d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $959 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.49 · official $28.49 (match) · 110 history records