Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:50:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EB 0xeb90…9c42 sports 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$290 (-19%) realized −$288 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -83% what you keep after slip
Net edge-83%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%59W / 511L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$80
other 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-82.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 496 -93.9% -94.5% 3% 3% -89.6%
≤30d 570 -80.2% -82.1% 10% 10% -66.6%
≤90d 570 -80.2% -82.1% 10% 10% -66.6%
all 570 -80.2% -82.1% 10% 10% -66.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -82.1% 10% -66.6%
10% -83.8% 9% -69.8%
15% -85.4% 6% -72.7%
20% -86.8% 4% -75.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -80% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late -98% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized−$288
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses59 / 511
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions5
Markets (closed)570 / 107
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 570 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Sara Bejlek Zeynep Sonmez 51¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski Taylor Fritz 84¢ 84¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
GV CD San José vs. CD Real Tomayapo: Both Teams to Score No 36¢ 42¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 55¢ 50¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will GV CD San José win on 2026-05-12? Yes 62¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 489 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hamburg European Open: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Karen Khachanov Jun 24 $17 −$1 -4%
Cagliari: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 24 $10 +$4 +45%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 24 $11 $0 -4%
Shymkent 2: Vladyslav Orlov vs Mili Poljicak Jun 24 $5 +$1 +22%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jelena Ostapenko vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 24 $5 $0 -4%
Will CA Barracas Central vs. CA Banfield end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Zagreb: Nerman Fatic vs Elmer Moeller Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Madrid Open: Elise Mertens vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Madrid Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
AC Nagano Parceiro vs. Fujieda MYFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Mboko vs. Cristian: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper Ruud Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Abidjan: Gauthier Onclin vs Calvin Hemery Jun 24 $5 −$10 -202%
Will Chennaiyin FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Gençlerbirliği SK: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Swansea City AFC vs. Charlton Athletic FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Trabzonspor vs. Göztepe SK: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Kilmarnock FC vs. Dundee United FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 24 $5 −$10 -200%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Sinja Kraus Jun 24 $5 −$10 -200%
Paris: Talia Gibson vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
FC Universitatea Cluj vs. FC Argeș Pitești: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Club Always Ready vs. CA Nacional Potosí: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Olympic Dcheira win on 2026-05-04? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fujieda MYFC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chennaiyin FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FK Rukh Lviv win on 2026-05-04? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Istanbul: Alice Tubello vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Torino FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs. FC Universitario end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Madrid Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alex Michelsen Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
FK Zorya Luhansk vs. FK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Francavilla: Gustavo Heide vs Martin Krumich Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Málaga CF vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Ostrava: Raul Brancaccio vs Toby Samuel Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Gwangju: Hyeon Chung vs Clement Chidekh Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Huzhou: Yufei Ren vs Yidi Yang Jun 24 $5 −$10 -202%
Francavilla: August Holmgren vs Max Schoenhaus Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-05-02? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CSD Municipal vs. CSD Mixco end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Venezia FC vs. Palermo FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Oeiras 4: Fiona Ferro vs Linda Klimovicova Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Darja Semenistaja vs Katie Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Madrid Open: Sebastian Ofner vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $5 −$10 -202%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Sara Bejlek BUY Zeynep Sonmez 51¢ $30 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski BUY Taylor Fritz 83¢ $7 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski BUY Taylor Fritz 84¢ $16 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 51¢ $34 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Eva Lys 38¢ $5 26h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 66¢ $12 42h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $5 43h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 63¢ $5 43h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 66¢ $10 43h
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 51¢ $17 47h
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 70¢ $6 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 51¢ $43 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Johannus Monday vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Tristan Schoolkate 64¢ $5 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolas Moreno De Alboran vs Harold Mayo BUY Harold Mayot 67¢ $6 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andres Andrade vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 81¢ $9 2d
Mallorca Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Corentin Moutet 55¢ $5 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 66¢ $6 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Agustin Gomez vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 66¢ $5 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Napolitano vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 75¢ $5 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Chidekh vs Aziz Dougaz BUY Clement Chidekh 69¢ $8 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $5 2d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 58¢ $6 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag BUY Anastasia Zakharova 56¢ $5 4d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm BUY Renata Zarazua 77¢ $24 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $5 5d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 87¢ $22 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $5 6d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 75¢ $5 7d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Ben Shelton 51¢ $43 8d
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 51¢ $43 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.03 · official $202.03 (match) · 3500 history records