Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:21:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EB 0xeb8f…7876 crypto 619 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,342 (-5%) realized −$8,342 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate75%463W / 156L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$145
14 days−$145
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8,882
sports 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -9.4% -18.1% 68% 39% -17.9%
≤30d 46 -8.7% -17.4% 70% 37% -17.0%
≤90d 173 -5.2% -14.2% 73% 35% -15.0%
all 619 -3.9% -13.0% 75% 26% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 26% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 12% -22.6%
15% -29.0% 6% -30.1%
20% -35.9% 3% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$140 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,342
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses463 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)619 / 619
History coverage104d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 619 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 29 $61 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$5 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$14 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $18 +$11 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $54 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 27 $49 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $67 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $65 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$27 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $118 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $55 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $61 +$21 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $61 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $61 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $24 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $35 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $49 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $49 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 22 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 17 $100 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $15 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $11 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $29 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $13 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $57 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $59 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $55 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2715 history records