Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:14:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb8d…0c40 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%10W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$1
politics 25% $0
other 15% $0
sports 11% $0
crypto 6% $0
culture 5% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +6.3% -3.8% 50% 50% -10.2%
≤30d 10 -1.4% -10.8% 20% 10% -10.1%
≤90d 10 -1.4% -10.8% 20% 10% -10.1%
all 36 -0.4% -9.9% 28% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses10 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage284d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97¢ 97¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 22¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +17%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -23%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $26 $0 +1%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 22 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 18 $30 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $30 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 13 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $40 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 3h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $20 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $21 17h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $35 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $1 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $28 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $8 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $8 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $25 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $2 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $2 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $14 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $23 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 94¢ $37 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $8 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $7 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $3 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $26 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $14 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.04 · official $39.95 (match) · 106 history records