Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:28:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb8c…6f6f world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate23%9W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$1
other 22% $0
sports 10% $0
politics 8% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 4% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.7%
all 39 +0.0% -9.5% 23% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses9 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage268d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $31 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $39 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $64 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $66 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $63 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 11 $19 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $3 $0 +6%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Oct 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Oct 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Oct 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 05 $3 $0 +2%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 04 $24 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 02 $24 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 01 $23 $0 -1%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Oct 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Taylor Swift" during September? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $4 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $26 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $31 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $4 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $27 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $23 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $31 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $31 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $24 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $30 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $37 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $35 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $24 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.11 · official $31.11 (match) · 111 history records