Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:51:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EB 0xeb8b…8e96 sports 233 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$187 (+3%) realized +$178 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate56%128W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days+$126
14 days+$126
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$96
weather 22% −$53
other 18% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -26.1% -33.2% 50% 31% -3.6%
≤30d 36 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 44% -4.2%
≤90d 226 -0.4% -9.9% 57% 51% -7.8%
all 228 -1.3% -10.7% 56% 51% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 51% -8.0%
10% -19.2% 43% -16.8%
15% -27.0% 35% -24.8%
20% -34.2% 27% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$369
Realized+$178
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses128 / 100
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions5
Markets (closed)228 / 233
History coverage98d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $313 $322 +$9 (+3%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $12 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 −$61 -86%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $314 +$71 +23%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $315 +$46 +15%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $229 +$86 +38%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $29 −$28 -99%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $243 +$15 +6%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $222 +$21 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $213 +$8 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $184 +$29 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $18 −$17 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$5 +70%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $8 $0 -6%
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $14 −$14 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $12 +$3 +24%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $4 −$3 -68%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $13 +$3 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 −$4 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 −$3 -60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +62%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 02 $5 +$2 +50%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +50%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 01 $11 −$2 -14%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $1 +$2 +179%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $6 +$5 +83%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $1 −$1 -76%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 01 $4 +$2 +62%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $1 +$3 +291%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $3 +$2 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -92%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5) May 21 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 16? May 16 $3 +$1 +59%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 16 $3 −$2 -93%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 16 $2 +$1 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 16? May 16 $1 +$1 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 16? May 16 $1 −$1 -63%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 16? May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 16 $3 +$1 +32%
Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier May 15 $2 +$1 +48%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 2 Winner May 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 15? May 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 15? May 15 $3 −$3 -89%
Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorer May 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria $10 12m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $315 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $71 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $314 8h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $12 21h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $12 21h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 21h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 21h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 87¢ $315 36h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 72¢ $229 43h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 56¢ $10 44h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 57¢ $19 44h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $258 44h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $243 45h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $243 45h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 91¢ $222 45h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $222 46h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 96¢ $213 46h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $214 47h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 86¢ $184 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 54¢ $18 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $13 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 58¢ $8 2d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 38¢ $12 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $21 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 3d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 26¢ $14 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $14 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $14 3d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $29 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $368.84 · official $368.84 (match) · 486 history records