Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:05:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb87…59d0 world 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 346d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$11
other 30% +$4
sports 11% +$9
economics 8% −$2
culture 6% +$1
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.4% -9.9% 44% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 30 -1.4% -10.8% 30% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 35 -1.3% -10.7% 29% 0% -9.7%
all 48 -0.6% -10.0% 33% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

346d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage346d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $86 −$2 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $85 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $210 +$2 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $134 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $94 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $70 −$3 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $307 −$5 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $87 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $64 −$1 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $103 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $194 −$1 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $377 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $169 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $194 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $88 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $659 +$3 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $5 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $39 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $97 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $88 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $88 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $10 −$3 -27%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $100 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 15 $490 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $566 −$2 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $662 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 11 $217 +$1 +0%
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5 Mar 10 $230 +$10 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Mar 09 $230 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $230 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $31 +$3 +10%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Jul 08 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $84 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $86 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $38 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $48 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $85 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $86 16h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $84 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $8 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $8 47h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $84 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $84 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $15 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $69 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $85 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $92 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $92 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $4 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $33 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $36 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 97¢ $50 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $49 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $75 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.00 (match) · 203 history records