Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:17:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EB 0xeb85…3887 crypto 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$4 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate62%86W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$8
14 days+$13
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$3
other 13% +$3
politics 8% −$17
sports 4% +$5
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +19.7% +8.3% 79% 58% +9.9%
≤30d 69 +1.2% -8.4% 70% 49% -0.8%
≤90d 139 -4.1% -13.2% 62% 51% -13.0%
all 139 -4.1% -13.2% 62% 51% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 51% -13.0%
10% -21.5% 39% -21.3%
15% -29.1% 29% -28.9%
20% -36.1% 18% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses86 / 53
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)139 / 145
History coverage66d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Over 87¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +27%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +118%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 05 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 25 $1 $0 +3%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 23 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 23 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 22 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 22 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 22 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL 96¢ $3 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY 61¢ $2 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2 4h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 4h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 5h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.76 · official $20.76 (match) · 396 history records