Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:04:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb82…5461 other 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,126 (+1%) realized +$1,123 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate18%30W / 134L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$1,066per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$825now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$17
14 days−$34
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$454
politics 38% −$82
sports 5% +$1,578
crypto 2% +$4
economics 2% −$2
world 2% +$31
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -4.0% -13.1% 9% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 85 -1.6% -11.0% 7% 4% -8.7%
all 164 -3.1% -12.3% 18% 10% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 10% -9.0%
10% -20.7% 10% -17.7%
15% -28.4% 10% -25.6%
20% -35.4% 8% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,388) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$8 · ×8.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$825
Realized+$1,123
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses30 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)164 / 166
History coverage163d
Avg bet$1,066
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $441 $441 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $381 $384 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $302 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,270 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,711 −$5 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $4,744 −$5 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $4,170 −$4 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $787 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,848 −$4 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,227 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,315 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $992 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $884 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $883 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $82 +$56 +67%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,181 −$2 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,362 −$5 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $2,296 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $361 +$2 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $577 +$1 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,414 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,854 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $410 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $3,282 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $768 −$1 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 25 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,481 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,015 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $1,361 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $991 −$1 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,164 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $1,388 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,065 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $2,703 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $3,851 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $3,101 −$4 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,578 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,155 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $3,255 −$4 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,332 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $441 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $581 43h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $582 44h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $302 3d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $302 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $726 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $728 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $850 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $851 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $710 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $711 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $682 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $683 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $683 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $684 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $739 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $740 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $844 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $845 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $381 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,032 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,033 12d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $786 12d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $787 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,363 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,366 13d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,225 13d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,227 13d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,313 13d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,315 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $824.90 · official $824.90 (match) · 578 history records