Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:41:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb81…3600 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+5%) realized −$45 · open +$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -20.3% -27.9% 43% 29% -24.6%
≤30d 7 -20.3% -27.9% 43% 29% -24.6%
≤90d 7 -20.3% -27.9% 43% 29% -24.6%
all 7 -20.3% -27.9% 43% 29% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 29% -24.6%
10% -34.8% 14% -31.8%
15% -41.1% 14% -38.4%
20% -46.8% 0% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage6d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 23¢ 44¢ $70 $133 +$63 (+90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $60 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $30 +$12 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $56 +$8 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$6 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $40 −$28 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $40 −$20 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $30 −$16 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $35 7m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $29 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $42 21h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 21h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 21h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 21h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 21h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $16 23h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 23h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 23h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 24h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 24h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 24h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $60 25h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 25h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 25h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 25h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 26h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 26h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 26h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $35 39h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 40h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 42h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 43h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 43h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 43h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 43h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $12 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.30 · official $133.30 (match) · 36 history records