Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

EB 0xeb80…0db6 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$481 (+11%) realized +$487 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate53%10W / 9L

Drawdown29%max

Avg bet$214per market

Trades / day2.8pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit48%portable

Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$57

7 days+$45

14 days+$537

30 days+$537

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)-5.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-24.6%	-31.8%	33%	33%	+0.2%
≤30d	19	+4.9%	-5.1%	53%	47%	+1.4%
≤90d	19	+4.9%	-5.1%	53%	47%	+1.4%
all	19	+4.9%	-5.1%	53%	47%	+1.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.1%	47%	+1.4%
10%	-14.2%	47%	-8.3%
15%	-22.5%	42%	-17.2%
20%	-30.1%	32%	-25.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +42% → late -28% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$89 vs −$39 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$19

Realized+$487

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses10 / 9

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage12d

Avg bet$214

Trades / day2.8

Drawdown29%

Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Dua Lipa pregnant in 2026?	Yes	26¢	19¢	$25	$19	−$6 (-26%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$31	+$57	+187%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Jun 26	$23	−$23	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$95	+$73	+76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Jun 23	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 23	$42	−$42	-100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 23	$57	−$57	-100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 23	$66	−$66	-100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$96	+$110	+115%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$108	−$66	-61%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 20	$75	+$33	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Jun 18	$26	+$21	+81%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$57	−$20	-36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$137	−$71	-52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$51	+$38	+74%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$1,926	+$148	+8%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$2	+$4	+188%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$1,639	+$404	+25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+43%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	SELL Yes	94¢	$88	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	32¢	$31	1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$23	2d
Dua Lipa pregnant in 2026?	BUY Yes	26¢	$26	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	56¢	$95	3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	92¢	$205	5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$96	5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$42	7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	27¢	$43	7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$108	7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	SELL Yes	45¢	$108	8d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$75	8d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$57	10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$47	10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$26	10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	35¢	$36	10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$57	10d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$66	11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	34¢	$55	11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	91¢	$11	11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$137	11d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	28¢	$20	11d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	57¢	$51	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$2	11d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	87¢	$2,074	11d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	6¢	$4	11d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	6¢	$2	11d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	11d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$1,926	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.52 · official $18.52 (match) · 43 history records