trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -15.2% | -23.3% | 67% | 0% | -7.7% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -15.2% | -23.3% | 67% | 0% | -7.7% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -16.7% | -24.6% | 67% | 0% | -9.0% |
| all | 9 | -16.7% | -24.6% | 67% | 0% | -9.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -24.6% | 0% | -9.0% |
| 10% | -31.9% | 0% | -17.7% |
| 15% | -38.4% | 0% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -44.5% | 0% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $102 | $102 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | Jun 25 | $2 | −$1 | -54% |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | Jun 25 | $44 | +$1 | +2% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Jun 25 | $29 | +$2 | +7% |
| Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont | May 01 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy bo | Apr 03 | $1 | −$1 | -58% |
| X banned in U.K. by March 31? | Apr 02 | $28 | $0 | +1% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | Apr 02 | $34 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? | Apr 02 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Mar 30 | $1 | $0 | -50% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL Yes | 0¢ | $1 | 1h |
| Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY Yes | 0¢ | $2 | 1h |
| Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? | BUY No | 100¢ | $102 | 1h |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | BUY Yes | 94¢ | $29 | 60d |
| Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont | BUY No | 99¢ | $30 | 78d |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | BUY No | 98¢ | $44 | 78d |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy bo | SELL Yes | 4¢ | $0 | 83d |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | SELL Yes | 0¢ | $0 | 87d |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | BUY Yes | 0¢ | $1 | 87d |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | BUY No | 99¢ | $34 | 100d |
| X banned in U.K. by March 31? | BUY No | 99¢ | $28 | 100d |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy bo | BUY Yes | 10¢ | $1 | 101d |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? | BUY No | 100¢ | $46 | 101d |