Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb7b…ffa7 world 24 markets active 22h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$1
other 12% −$5
politics 9% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.5% 43% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 10 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 0% -9.8%
all 24 -10.4% -18.9% 54% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 0% -11.3%
10% -26.7% 0% -19.8%
15% -33.8% 0% -27.6%
20% -40.3% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage452d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $35 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $13 −$1 -7%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $35 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $5 $0 +2%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -77%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 13 $4 −$4 -92%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Playboi Carti's "MUSIC" debuts at #1 on Billboard 200? Mar 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 22 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $21 21h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $1 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $1 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $8 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $8 29h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $38 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $7 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $29 40h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 40h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $10 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $0 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $2 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $25 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $25 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $25 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $25 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $16 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records