Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:20:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EB 0xeb7b…a5f7 crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate68%34W / 16L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$4
politics 8% +$6
crypto 7% +$2
sports 0% −$4
economics 0% +$10
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 21 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 50 -0.9% -10.4% 68% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 8% -9.4%
10% -19.0% 8% -18.1%
15% -26.8% 8% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses34 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage612d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? Jun 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23? May 27 $27 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 22 $27 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? May 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30? May 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 16? Apr 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 15? Apr 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 11? Apr 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 9? Apr 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 2? Apr 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 26? Apr 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 25? Mar 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 18? Mar 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 26? Mar 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 12? Feb 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 11? Feb 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? Feb 09 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? Feb 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 31? Feb 04 $26 $0 +2%
Pistons vs. Magic Jan 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 25 $10 $0 +1%
U.S. Recession in 2024? Dec 30 $1 $0 -1%
Will Silver close over $40 at the end of 2024? Dec 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will MAGA reach $1b first? Dec 30 $1 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Dec 30 $1 $0 -1%
Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024? Dec 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 30 $1 $0 -1%
Doge ETF approved in 2024? Dec 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Dec 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 30 $3,390 $0 +0%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 27 $282 $0 +0%
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 27 $1,412 $0 +0%
Will Drake London be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 26 $3,390 $0 -0%
Will Tyreek Hill be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 26 $565 $0 +0%
Dolphins vs. Bills Nov 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 11 $13 +$7 +59%
Unemployment rate over 4.1% in October? Nov 11 $13 +$10 +82%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2024? Oct 28 $10 +$6 +54%
Ravens vs. Buccaneers Oct 23 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-10-21? Oct 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 18 $848 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $27 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $27 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $27 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $27 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $27 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $27 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $27 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23? BUY No 99¢ $27 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 99¢ $27 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $27 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $27 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $27 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $27 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $27 67d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 67d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 72d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 74d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 80d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 87d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $26 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 26? BUY No 100¢ $33 115d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 132d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 132d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? BUY No 99¢ $13 135d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $26 136d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $26 138d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $26 142d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 45¢ $4 512d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.93 · official $26.93 (match) · 187 history records