Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EB 0xeb79…d237 crypto 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$85 (-5%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate58%51W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$4
14 days−$236
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$73
other 17% −$75
sports 2% +$8
weather 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +2.7% -7.1% 64% 44% -10.1%
≤30d 80 +4.1% -5.8% 58% 40% -19.2%
≤90d 88 +4.5% -5.4% 58% 41% -17.9%
all 88 +4.5% -5.4% 58% 41% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 41% -17.9%
10% -14.5% 31% -25.7%
15% -22.8% 20% -32.9%
20% -30.3% 14% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses51 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage43d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 46¢ 45¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $65 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$18 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $63 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $9 +$16 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 06 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 06 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 3? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 23? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? Jun 06 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25? Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $20 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 04 $35 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 04 $13 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 04 $8 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 04 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 03 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$5 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $40 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $66 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $65 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $44 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 25h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $12 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $63 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $61 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $70 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $61 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.67 · official $19.67 (match) · 188 history records