Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EB 0xeb76…3cb8 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$2
politics 43% $0
tech 7% $0
economics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage92d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $110 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $110 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $110 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $110 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $111 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $112 $0 +0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 08 $112 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $112 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $112 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $112 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $109 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $110 14h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $110 14d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $110 14d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $110 24d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $110 24d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 29d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $110 30d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 38d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $110 39d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $110 39d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 40d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 40d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 40d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $110 45d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $111 45d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $111 50d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $111 51d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $112 69d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 70d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 70d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $112 74d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $112 75d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $112 79d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $112 79d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 80d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 81d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $112 86d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $112 86d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $112 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records