Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EB 0xeb73…53b0 other 223 markets active 4h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$17,362 (+4%) realized +$16,030 · open +$1,332
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%95W / 127L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,012per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$695est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$1,632now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$709
7 days+$501
14 days+$501
30 days+$23,936
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$1,190
sports 9% +$27,935
crypto 5% −$4,876
finance 1% −$4,347
world 0% −$765
tech 0% −$195
economics 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +31.9% +19.3% 50% 50% +3.8%
≤30d 42 +67.0% +51.1% 50% 50% +18.8%
≤90d 98 +43.7% +30.0% 48% 48% -6.0%
all 222 +16.9% +5.7% 43% 41% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 41% -5.8%
10% -4.4% 41% -14.8%
15% -13.6% 40% -23.0%
20% -22.1% 38% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$2,266) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,423 vs −$1,692 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$1,632
Realized+$16,030
Unrealized+$1,332
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses95 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$695
Open positions1
Markets (closed)222 / 223
History coverage196d
Avg bet$2,012
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 18¢ 100¢ $300 $1,632 +$1,332 (+444%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $818 +$2,145 +262%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $506 +$327 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $614 −$455 -74%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,873 −$1,056 -37%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $610 −$600 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$347 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$192 +188%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $17,301 −$17,000 -98%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $3,366 +$4,022 +120%
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5) May 25 $1,302 +$698 +54%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 24 $1,841 +$5,818 +316%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $7,967 +$19,422 +244%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,842 +$2,247 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 24 $318 +$107 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 24 $737 +$1,278 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 24 $934 −$903 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 24 $519 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 24 $209 −$82 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 24 $261 +$461 +176%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,826 +$1,636 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 24 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 24 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 24 $53 −$50 -94%
Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Ser May 24 $1 +$1 +144%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,836 −$529 -29%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3,740 −$2,821 -75%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3,048 −$644 -21%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 24 $1,841 −$1,550 -84%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 22 $5,061 +$3,413 +67%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 20 $3,175 −$3,100 -98%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? May 20 $511 +$1,412 +276%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $9,001 +$5,324 +59%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 20 $4,396 +$12,532 +285%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3,573 −$3,500 -98%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? May 17 $1,006 +$244 +24%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 17 $2,112 +$495 +23%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3,049 −$3,000 -98%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 17 $1,534 −$483 -32%
Will AS Roma vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? May 17 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? May 17 $510 −$500 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $7,429 −$7,300 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 11 $6,380 −$6,320 -99%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $2,355 −$2,300 -98%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $309 −$300 -97%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 10 $2,028 −$2,000 -99%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? May 10 $1,027 −$995 -97%
Will Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 10 $1,021 +$2,202 +216%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 10 $616 +$2,157 +350%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $506 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $818 4h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? SELL Yes 6¢ $159 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $307 5h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $614 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 6¢ $215 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $375 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 8¢ $557 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $549 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $720 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $925 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,022 7h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $610 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $305 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $294 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $409 3d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $17,301 16d
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5) BUY Torino FC 64¢ $1,302 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $27 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $4 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $4 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $20 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $29 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,632.22 · official $1,632.22 (match) · 1085 history records