Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:29:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xeb72…f2fb sports 306 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$122 (+5%) realized +$122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate62%187W / 116L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$88
14 days+$96
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$83
sports 18% +$7
other 5% −$4
world 0% −$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 +5.9% -4.2% 66% 53% -5.2%
≤30d 277 +7.3% -2.9% 64% 53% -5.5%
≤90d 292 +5.1% -4.9% 62% 52% -5.8%
all 303 +3.8% -6.1% 62% 51% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 51% -5.9%
10% -15.1% 36% -14.9%
15% -23.3% 23% -23.2%
20% -30.8% 16% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses187 / 116
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)303 / 306
History coverage112d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 69¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance South Africa 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $61 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $77 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$24 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $56 −$30 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $56 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $82 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$25 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$5 +9%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 27 $1 +$1 +60%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $2 +$1 +50%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $61 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $35 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +28%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $1 +$6 +596%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +119%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 +$1 +24%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$17 +56%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B Jun 25 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $56 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $35 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $51 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $16 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $30 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $39 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $30 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $16 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $29 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $34 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $6 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.92 · official $3.92 (match) · 677 history records