Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:54:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb6f…5597 crypto 308 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3255 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,508 (-27%) realized −$7,508 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%161W / 580L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day3255.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,315
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3255 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-64.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 741 -60.4% -64.2% 22% 20% -41.6%
≤30d 741 -60.4% -64.2% 22% 20% -41.6%
≤90d 741 -60.4% -64.2% 22% 20% -41.6%
all 741 -60.4% -64.2% 22% 20% -41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3255.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -64.2% 20% -41.6%
10% ← realistic here -67.6% 16% -47.2%
15% -70.7% 12% -52.3%
20% -73.6% 8% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$40 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$7,508
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses161 / 580
Open positions1
Markets (closed)741 / 308
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$90
Trades / day3255.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 741 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 21¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 29 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 29 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 29 $257 −$257 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 29 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 29 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 29 $163 −$163 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $16 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $25 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $25 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $16 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $15 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.42 · official $5.29 (match) · 3500 history records