Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb6d…b5ae other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% $0
other 26% −$1
politics 12% $0
sports 9% $0
economics 7% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 42 -0.2% -9.7% 26% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage268d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $35 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $36 −$1 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $34 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Oct 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 01 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $11 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $20 $0 -1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $28 $0 -0%
Will the 2025 Ryder Cup end in a tie? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 28 $24 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $4 $0 -4%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 25 $7 $0 -4%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by September 30? Sep 25 $26 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $39 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $36 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $33 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $35 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $33 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $34 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $34 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $8 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $39 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $7 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $3 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $11 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $0 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $17 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $21 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $35 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $8 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $27 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $8 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $28 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $36 9d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $27 256d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $27 256d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $28 256d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.70 · official $38.48 (match) · 132 history records