Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb6c…f62c other 10 markets active 3d ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-29%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$3
weather 27% −$8
crypto 17% −$5
other 13% +$5
sports 10% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 50% -6.5%
≤30d 9 +12.5% +1.8% 44% 44% -37.7%
≤90d 9 +12.5% +1.8% 44% 44% -37.7%
all 9 +12.5% +1.8% 44% 44% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 44% -37.7%
10% -7.9% 44% -43.7%
15% -16.8% 44% -49.1%
20% -25.0% 44% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage22d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C or higher on May 27? May 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 26 $1 +$2 +216%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 26 $4 +$3 +82%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.15 · official $1.15 (match) · 18 history records