Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EB 0xeb68…e992 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% $0
other 38% +$5
sports 7% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.0% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 -0.0% -9.6% 27% 0% -9.4%
all 23 +2.9% -6.9% 52% 4% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 4% -8.6%
10% -15.8% 4% -17.3%
15% -23.9% 4% -25.3%
20% -31.4% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.63 per $1 lost it wins $5.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage489d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $28 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $99 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $32 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $39 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $46 $0 -0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Dec 10 $2 $0 +6%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will 'A Working Man' gross between 11-14m on opening weekend? Apr 02 $16 $0 +2%
Will 'A Working Man' gross less than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 29 $16 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 22 $8 +$5 +57%
Wyoming vs. Nevada Feb 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 25 $11 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $46 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $46 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $46 35h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $47 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $47 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $21 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $10 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $32 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $6 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 96¢ $38 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 97¢ $39 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $46 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $46 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $12 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $12 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $47 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $47 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.17 · official $46.17 (match) · 62 history records