Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:17:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EB 0xeb66…d649 other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$75 (+9%) realized +$80 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%31W / 31L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$52
14 days+$65
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$53
sports 16% +$3
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +0.7% -8.9% 48% 44% -3.0%
≤30d 62 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 47% -1.7%
≤90d 62 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 47% -1.7%
all 62 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 47% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 47% -1.7%
10% -18.0% 39% -11.1%
15% -25.9% 32% -19.7%
20% -33.2% 26% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$80
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses31 / 31
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)62 / 70
History coverage9d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+14%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 24¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-60%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -86%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 +$3 +158%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $14 +$3 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 +$5 +238%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -67%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +65%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 $0 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$6 -42%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $14 +$13 +93%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$9 +35%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -80%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $73 +$19 +25%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $14 −$9 -68%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $39 +$19 +48%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $61 +$30 +50%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$3 -30%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$1 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $26 +$8 +30%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$11 -72%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $19 +$18 +94%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 49m
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 49m
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 72¢ $5 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 13h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 13h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 14h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 14h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 22h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 28h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $14 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 28h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 28h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 36h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 36h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 36h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 36h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 46h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.26 · official $37.38 (match) · 144 history records