Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:12:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EB 0xeb5e…2e32 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$7 (+50%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +136% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +113% what you keep after slip
Net edge+113%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 156d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$2
other 36% +$1
sports 15% +$4
politics 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+113.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +167.6% +142.1% 67% 67% +144.0%
≤30d 3 +167.6% +142.1% 67% 67% +144.0%
≤90d 3 +167.6% +142.1% 67% 67% +144.0%
all 4 +135.9% +113.4% 75% 75% +67.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +113.4% 75% +67.0%
10% +93.0% 75% +51.0%
15% +74.4% 75% +36.4%
20% +57.3% 50% +23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +170% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +136% · $-wt +85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.59 per $1 lost it wins $8.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage156d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 34¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +365%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 01 $6 +$2 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 45h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 46h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 135d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.77 · official $3.77 (match) · 10 history records