Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb58…c62e weather 159 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (128 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$132 (-9%) realized −$133 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%5W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day128.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 54% −$60
other 21% −$46
politics 9% −$7
tech 4% −$5
finance 4% −$13
sports 3% −$8
culture 2% −$4
crypto 1% −$7
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (128 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 -17.7% -25.5% 3% 0% -20.0%
≤30d 143 -17.7% -25.5% 3% 0% -20.0%
≤90d 143 -17.7% -25.5% 3% 0% -20.0%
all 143 -17.7% -25.5% 3% 0% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover128.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 0% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 0% -27.7%
15% -39.1% 0% -34.7%
20% -45.1% 0% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses5 / 138
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)143 / 159
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day128.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? No 71¢ 72¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Up 64¢ 68¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance? Yes 11¢ 17¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+55%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Up 65¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? No 65¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 17? No 61¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Down 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? No 64¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? Down 53¢ 48¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 20¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-40%)
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 36¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-56%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Yes 32¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 17? Yes 11¢ 23¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+109%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 17? No 67¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-76%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? Yes 28¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 17 $3 $0 -7%
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -28%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 17 $9 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $13 $0 -3%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 17 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $3 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? Jun 17 $6 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $27 −$1 -3%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 16 $4 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? Jun 16 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $7 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $11 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 16 $35 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $16 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -7%
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial electio Jun 16 $19 −$6 -30%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 16 $19 −$5 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 16 $7 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $4 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -11%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $14 −$3 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $22 −$1 -5%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 16 $28 −$4 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 16 $4 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 16 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Jun 16 $15 $0 -1%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 16 $4 −$1 -14%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 16 $13 $0 -3%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 16 $8 −$2 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $14 $0 -3%
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $8B in 2026? Jun 16 $16 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2m
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 71¢ $11 5m
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 11m
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? SELL No 12¢ $2 11m
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 14m
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? BUY No 16¢ $3 15m
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 46¢ $9 26m
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 53¢ $11 29m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 44¢ $9 31m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 45¢ $9 34m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $2 44m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 51m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 53m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? SELL No 63¢ $6 56m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 57m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 64¢ $6 58m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 65¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $3 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 64¢ $9 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL No 47¢ $9 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY No 47¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? SELL No 66¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY No 68¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.33 · official $35.85 · 439 history records