Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EB
0xeb54…d452
weather · 156 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$11,567 +464%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11,778 · open −$277
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20,523
Realized+$11,778
Unrealized−$277
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses230 / 16
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions253
Markets (closed)246 / 156
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day393.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 253 History 246 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11,778
7 days+$11,778
14 days+$11,778
30 days+$11,778
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? Yes 49¢ 100¢ $1,110 $2,264 +$1,154 (+104%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? No 2¢ 100¢ $26 $1,640 +$1,614 (+6282%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Yes 39¢ 100¢ $404 $1,032 +$628 (+155%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 12¢ 100¢ $70 $581 +$511 (+733%)
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 100¢ $53 $382 +$329 (+620%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? No 97¢ 100¢ $345 $358 +$12 (+4%)
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? No 95¢ 100¢ $335 $351 +$16 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 100¢ $87 $321 +$234 (+269%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? No 2¢ 100¢ $6 $318 +$312 (+4900%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? No 98¢ 100¢ $311 $317 +$6 (+2%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? No 84¢ 100¢ $256 $304 +$48 (+19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? No 95¢ 100¢ $274 $287 +$13 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $249 $260 +$11 (+4%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $252 $257 +$5 (+2%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $246 $252 +$6 (+3%)
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Usyk 91¢ 100¢ $219 $242 +$23 (+10%)
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) Sean Brady 89¢ 100¢ $193 $216 +$23 (+12%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? No 98¢ 100¢ $194 $198 +$4 (+2%)
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card) Arnold Allen 87¢ 100¢ $168 $193 +$25 (+15%)
Will XRP reach $1.80 in April? No 97¢ 100¢ $173 $179 +$6 (+3%)
Will XRP reach $1.60 in April? No 96¢ 100¢ $167 $174 +$7 (+4%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $161 $161 +$0 (+0%)
UFC Fight Night: Robert Bryczek vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Main Card) Cam Rowston 99¢ 100¢ $156 $158 +$2 (+1%)
Will XRP reach $2.00 in April? No 99¢ 100¢ $155 $158 +$2 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $147 $150 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? Jun 12 $1,110 +$2,297 +207%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 12 $26 +$3,236 +12592%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Jun 12 $404 +$1,260 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $70 +$1,023 +1467%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $53 +$696 +1312%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Jun 12 $345 +$28 +8%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 12 $335 +$30 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $87 +$437 +503%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 12 $6 +$631 +9916%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Jun 12 $311 +$12 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 12 $256 +$35 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 12 $274 +$21 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $249 +$22 +9%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? Jun 12 $252 +$9 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? Jun 12 $246 +$13 +5%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Jun 12 $219 +$45 +20%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $193 +$47 +24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? Jun 12 $194 +$9 +5%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai Jun 12 $168 +$50 +30%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in April? Jun 12 $173 +$11 +6%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in April? Jun 12 $167 +$12 +7%
UFC Fight Night: Robert Bryczek vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Main Ca Jun 12 $156 +$4 +3%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in April? Jun 12 $155 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $147 +$5 +3%
Will Solana reach $100 in April? Jun 12 $136 +$35 +26%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? Jun 12 $144 +$6 +4%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 12 $99 +$85 +85%
UFC Fight Night: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, M Jun 12 $124 +$24 +19%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 12 $126 +$10 +8%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Jun 12 $90 +$53 +59%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 12 $41 +$182 +446%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 12 $106 −$3 -3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Jun 12 $82 +$139 +170%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Jun 12 $98 +$10 +10%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? Jun 12 $99 +$2 +2%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 12 $10 +$190 +1900%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $79 +$31 +39%
Will Solana dip to $60 in April? Jun 12 $84 −$1 -2%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in April? Jun 12 $81 +$3 +4%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Jun 12 $74 +$15 +20%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Jun 12 $78 +$6 +8%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $79 +$2 +2%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 12 $73 +$9 +13%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? Jun 12 $75 +$3 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Jun 12 $74 +$3 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? Jun 12 $73 +$3 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? Jun 12 $74 +$3 +4%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 12 $45 +$58 +129%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? Jun 12 $27 +$65 +241%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May? Jun 12 $67 +$8 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% −$157
weather 34% −$11
sports 11% −$67
politics 4% $0
world 3% −$3
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 64¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 66¢ $4 15m
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 61¢ $5 19m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 66¢ $4 35m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 66¢ $4 35m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 66¢ $4 35m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 66¢ $4 35m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 65¢ $0 47m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 65¢ $9 47m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 65¢ $6 47m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 65¢ $4 49m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 80¢ $4 50m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 68¢ $12 51m
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 51¢ $24 58m
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 50¢ $5 59m
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 50¢ $5 59m
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 65¢ $3 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 72¢ $3 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 31¢ $5 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 32¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 65¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 55¢ $20 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+92.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 246 +112.6% +92.3% 93% 53% +63.3%
≤30d 246 +112.6% +92.3% 93% 53% +63.3%
≤90d 246 +112.6% +92.3% 93% 53% +63.3%
all 246 +112.6% +92.3% 93% 53% +63.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover393.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +92.3% 53% +63.3%
10% ← realistic here +73.9% 43% +47.6%
15% +57.1% 38% +33.4%
20% +41.7% 36% +20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,523.32 · official $20,514.21 (match) · 3500 history records