Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb51…7342 other 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate32%16W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$1
other 33% −$3
politics 8% −$17
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.8% -10.2% 11% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 18 +1.1% -8.5% 17% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 18 +1.1% -8.5% 17% 6% -9.8%
all 50 -3.2% -12.4% 32% 2% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 2% -11.1%
10% -20.8% 2% -19.6%
15% -28.4% 0% -27.3%
20% -35.5% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses16 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage448d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $17 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $17 −$1 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $44 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $82 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $16 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +23%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $92 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $90 −$4 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $28 +$3 +10%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? May 08 $14 $0 +1%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof May 07 $3 $0 -10%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will Publisher win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? May 05 $5 $0 +3%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $20 −$16 -79%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 30 $5 $0 -2%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 29 $4 $0 -1%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 28 $20 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? Apr 27 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 27 $19 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 26 $19 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 25 $11 $0 -2%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Apr 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 23 $17 $0 -3%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 22 $22 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 04 $22 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will Wim Eijk be the next pope? Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $28 3m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $28 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $38 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $35 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $4 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $43 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $43 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $28 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $42 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $42 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $42 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $11 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $1 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $12 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $43 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records