Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:14:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EB 0xeb51…d5d1 crypto 356 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$729 (+3%) realized +$728 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%138W / 205L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$182
14 days+$182
30 days+$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$260
sports 4% +$535
other 1% −$102
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.9% -10.4% 25% 25% +27.0%
≤30d 20 -0.9% -10.4% 25% 25% +27.0%
≤90d 20 -0.9% -10.4% 25% 25% +27.0%
all 343 -6.2% -15.1% 40% 40% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 40% -6.2%
10% -23.2% 39% -15.2%
15% -30.7% 39% -23.4%
20% -37.5% 38% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$47 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$728
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses138 / 205
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)343 / 356
History coverage232d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 40¢ 42¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 172 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$82 +276%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 $0 -7%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $29 −$28 -98%
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 20 $102 +$176 +172%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $59 −$58 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $64 −$5 -8%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$22 +427%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $45 +$40 +90%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $24 −$23 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$51 +332%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 12AM ET Dec 02 $574 −$574 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 11PM ET Dec 02 $209 −$15 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 10PM ET Dec 02 $232 −$232 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 11AM ET Dec 01 $150 −$118 -79%
Solana Up or Down - December 1, 10AM ET Dec 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 1, 9AM ET Dec 01 $113 −$113 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 1, 8AM ET Dec 01 $70 −$70 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 1, 7AM ET Dec 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 7AM ET Dec 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 6AM ET Dec 01 $49 +$44 +90%
Solana Up or Down - December 1, 5AM ET Dec 01 $35 +$24 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 4AM ET Dec 01 $62 −$62 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 1, 3AM ET Dec 01 $74 +$103 +138%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 2AM ET Dec 01 $92 +$92 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 1AM ET Dec 01 $90 −$90 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 1, 12AM ET Dec 01 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 11PM ET Dec 01 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 11AM ET Dec 01 $20 +$19 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 10AM ET Nov 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 30, 9AM ET Nov 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 8AM ET Nov 30 $15 +$17 +114%
Solana Up or Down - November 30, 7AM ET Nov 30 $30 +$29 +96%
Solana Up or Down - November 30, 6AM ET Nov 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 5AM ET Nov 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 30, 4AM ET Nov 30 $9 +$9 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 3AM ET Nov 30 $14 +$15 +106%
Solana Up or Down - November 30, 2AM ET Nov 30 $20 +$19 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 1AM ET Nov 30 $20 +$15 +77%
Solana Up or Down - November 30, 12AM ET Nov 30 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 11PM ET Nov 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $10 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $20 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $112 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $30 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY 5¢ $21 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY 9¢ $21 22h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 22h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 23h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 23h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 20¢ $29 24h
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye? SELL Yes 100¢ $277 24h
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 24h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 29¢ $59 45h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 28¢ $59 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $64 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: BUY 14¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $27 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 12¢ $16 2d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY 7¢ $4 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY 11¢ $14 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia vs. So BUY 5¢ $2 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 52¢ $45 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will England v BUY 7¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.87 · official $30.87 (match) · 844 history records