Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EB 0xeb51…733c sports 572 markets active 2h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$177 (+1%) realized +$193 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%250W / 317L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$278est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days+$43
14 days+$195
30 days−$1,055
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$160
other 3% −$168
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +5.5% -4.5% 53% 53% -7.2%
≤30d 129 -14.5% -22.6% 43% 43% -23.0%
≤90d 329 -2.7% -11.9% 46% 46% -9.9%
all 567 -2.1% -11.4% 44% 44% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 44% -9.5%
10% -19.9% 43% -18.2%
15% -27.6% 43% -26.1%
20% -34.7% 41% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$40 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized+$193
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses250 / 317
Est. fees paid−$278
Open positions5
Markets (closed)567 / 572
History coverage453d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 567 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5) Seattle Storm 52¢ 53¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 53¢ 54¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Milwaukee Brewers 45¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 37¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 +$49 +97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $51 +$42 +83%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $51 +$56 +109%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $76 +$51 +67%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $51 +$53 +105%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 15 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $76 +$60 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $51 +$63 +124%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $51 +$39 +76%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 14 $51 +$49 +97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $51 +$60 +119%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $51 +$45 +90%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $51 +$51 +101%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +165%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $51 +$44 +86%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $51 +$40 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $51 +$58 +114%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 09 $51 +$58 +114%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 09 $51 +$60 +119%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $51 +$65 +129%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 09 $51 +$68 +134%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 09 $101 +$68 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5) BUY Seattle Storm 52¢ $51 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 37¢ $51 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 45¢ $51 1h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 50¢ $51 25h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 57¢ $51 25h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $51 25h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 40¢ $51 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 25h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 60¢ $76 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $51 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $51 3d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $51 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $51 3d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 50¢ $51 3d
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 40¢ $51 3d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $51 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 38¢ $51 4d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $76 4d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $51 4d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 35¢ $51 5d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $51 5d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $51 5d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $51 5d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Detroit Tigers 52¢ $48 5d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 53¢ $51 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $51 6d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $51 6d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.40 · official $234.40 (match) · 1162 history records