Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EB 0xeb4f…6e10 sports 343 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$731 (+2%) realized +$777 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%194W / 148L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$385est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$11
14 days−$685
30 days−$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$373
other 1% −$5
tech 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.9% -6.9% 67% 50% -1.8%
≤30d 125 -15.2% -23.3% 51% 44% -7.5%
≤90d 342 -2.1% -11.4% 57% 47% -6.4%
all 342 -2.1% -11.4% 57% 47% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 47% -6.4%
10% -19.9% 33% -15.3%
15% -27.6% 20% -23.5%
20% -34.7% 10% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$30 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$777
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses194 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$385
Open positions1
Markets (closed)342 / 343
History coverage89d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 342 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner Eternal Fire 60¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $43 +$3 +7%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Iraq 1st Half O Jun 23 $30 +$13 +43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 +$10 +46%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $46 −$8 -16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $59 −$18 -30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $28 +$11 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $199 −$159 -80%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $162 +$72 +44%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 +$7 +23%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 −$7 -7%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $74 +$24 +33%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $38 +$18 +47%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$21 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $111 −$79 -71%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $473 −$150 -32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $51 −$47 -92%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $192 +$26 +14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $213 +$140 +66%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $242 −$47 -20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $145 +$58 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $174 +$17 +10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $121 +$32 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $251 +$30 +12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $652 −$134 -21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $676 −$352 -52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $449 +$9 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $292 +$84 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $317 +$133 +42%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $35 +$10 +30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$3 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$29 +29%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $25 +$14 +57%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$20 +66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $611 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $303 −$69 -23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $252 +$37 +15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $269 −$67 -25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $171 +$20 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $303 +$114 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $166 −$64 -38%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $118 −$40 -34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $70 +$20 +29%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $111 +$35 +31%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $242 +$7 +3%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $81 +$27 +34%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$3 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner BUY Eternal Fire 60¢ $47 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $43 16h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Iraq 1st Half O BUY 69¢ $30 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 25h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports - Map 1 Winner SELL Barça eSports 99¢ $21 25h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports - Map 1 Winner BUY Barça eSports 85¢ $18 26h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports - Map 1 Winner SELL Enterprise Esports 53¢ $18 26h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports - Map 1 Winner BUY Enterprise Esports 84¢ $28 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 74¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 28¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $35 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 30¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 52¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 99¢ $39 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 71¢ $28 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 9¢ $39 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $4 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 8¢ $35 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 56¢ $57 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 29¢ $77 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 40¢ $91 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 42¢ $102 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 29¢ $26 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $149 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 37¢ $8 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 45¢ $20 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 34¢ $31 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 67¢ $80 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 84¢ $5 9d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 99¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 1767 history records