Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EB 0xeb4c…3290 sports 1026 markets active 1h ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$90 (-1%) realized −$83 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%460W / 561L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,723now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$58
other 42% +$60
politics 1% −$71
crypto 1% −$28
world 1% −$25
economics 0% +$14
tech 0% −$5
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -21.6% -29.1% 47% 47% -6.1%
≤30d 15 -21.6% -29.1% 47% 47% -6.1%
≤90d 15 -21.6% -29.1% 47% 47% -6.1%
all 1021 -3.0% -12.3% 45% 44% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 44% -11.6%
10% -20.7% 43% -20.1%
15% -28.3% 39% -27.8%
20% -35.4% 35% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$1,723
Realized−$83
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses460 / 561
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1021 / 1026
History coverage263d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1021 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $720 $714 −$6 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $510 $514 +$4 (+1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Sweden 68¢ 68¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 59¢ 58¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $81 +$59 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $228 +$141 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $132 −$130 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$11 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$13 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 16 $8 −$7 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 16 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 16 $4 +$2 +50%
Dota 2: 1win vs Team Lynx (BO3) - CCT Playoffs Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - European Pro League Group Mar 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 16 $2 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 16 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 16 $1 +$9 +887%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 16 $1 +$1 +122%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 16 $2 +$4 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 16 $1 +$2 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 16 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $12 −$12 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Mar 07 $5 +$2 +45%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 Jan 22 $4 +$1 +25%
Valorant: Trace Esports vs Wolves Esports (BO3) Jan 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 59¢ $101 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $303 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $404 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $708 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $132 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $81 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $228 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $19 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,723.07 · official $1,723.07 (match) · 1667 history records