Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xeb4b…9f92 sports 313 markets active 0h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,115 (+10%) realized +$5,421 · open −$306
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate56%167W / 132L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$375est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$3,034now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$43
14 days+$2,280
30 days+$5,076
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$5,696
other 22% −$619
world 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -0.9% -10.3% 59% 56% -9.8%
≤30d 159 +14.2% +3.3% 62% 56% +3.4%
≤90d 209 +15.7% +4.7% 58% 52% +1.2%
all 299 +9.6% -0.8% 56% 51% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 51% +0.8%
10% -10.3% 46% -8.8%
15% -19.0% 41% -17.6%
20% -26.9% 33% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$92 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$3,034
Realized+$5,421
Unrealized−$306
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses167 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$375
Open positions14
Markets (closed)299 / 313
History coverage223d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 73¢ 74¢ $1,305 $1,322 +$17 (+1%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $486 $480 −$5 (-1%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $700 $350 −$350 (-50%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $274 $291 +$17 (+6%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 95¢ $262 $286 +$24 (+9%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $176 $172 −$5 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 29¢ 30¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 49¢ 46¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-14%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 4¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-79%)
Will Jiří Procházka be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $285 −$285 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $469 +$586 +125%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $742 −$742 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $598 +$752 +126%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $290 −$290 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $62 +$39 +64%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $310 +$190 +61%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $439 −$439 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $480 +$220 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $94 −$94 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $255 −$255 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $716 −$716 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 +$18 +150%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $778 +$223 +29%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $121 +$80 +67%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $123 −$123 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $769 +$232 +30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $242 +$358 +148%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $254 −$254 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $211 +$90 +43%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $79 −$79 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,864 +$338 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $341 +$160 +47%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $950 −$950 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $355 +$247 +70%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $195 +$105 +54%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $432 −$432 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $83 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $310 −$310 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 12 $142 +$158 +111%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $352 +$438 +124%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $136 +$64 +47%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $407 −$407 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $446 +$257 +58%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $494 +$316 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $172 +$108 +63%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $99 +$38 +39%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $778 +$623 +80%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $246 −$246 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $474 +$427 +90%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $108 +$42 +39%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $217 +$184 +85%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $126 −$122 -96%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $108 +$92 +85%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $282 +$118 +42%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $204 +$196 +96%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 08 $240 +$260 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $36 24m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 34m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 36m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 43m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 54m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 55m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $45 2h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $90 2h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $37 2h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $261 2h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $288 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $15 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $27 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $72 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $290 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $37 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $4 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $75 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $25 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $4 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $16 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $9 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 73¢ $630 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 73¢ $58 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 73¢ $42 27h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $5 39h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $1 39h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $4 39h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $45 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,033.51 · official $3,033.51 (match) · 1477 history records