Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:52:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb4b…5166 world 322 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,545 (-5%) realized −$2,039 · open −$1,506
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%87W / 196L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$2,057now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,415
7 days−$2,516
14 days−$6,625
30 days−$6,610
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$1,741
other 15% −$1,473
politics 5% −$639
finance 5% −$2,398
sports 4% −$1,116
culture 2% +$638
crypto 1% −$557
tech 1% +$161
economics 0% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -63.7% -67.1% 15% 15% -79.6%
≤30d 42 -17.2% -25.1% 26% 17% -45.7%
≤90d 170 -13.5% -21.7% 32% 25% -11.9%
all 283 -22.4% -29.7% 31% 23% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 23% -12.4%
10% -36.5% 19% -20.8%
15% -42.6% 17% -28.4%
20% -48.2% 14% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -42% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$92 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$2,057
Realized−$2,039
Unrealized−$1,506
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses87 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions35
Markets (closed)283 / 322
History coverage155d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $484 $290 −$194 (-40%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $433 $264 −$170 (-39%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $123 $152 +$28 (+23%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 49¢ 12¢ $632 $150 −$482 (-76%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 47¢ 64¢ $93 $129 +$36 (+38%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $262 $128 −$134 (-51%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $151 $108 −$43 (-28%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $97 $108 +$10 (+11%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 41¢ 27¢ $165 $107 −$58 (-35%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 43¢ 80¢ $43 $79 +$36 (+85%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $76 $73 −$3 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $57 $62 +$6 (+10%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $309 $56 −$253 (-82%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $110 $55 −$55 (-50%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $83 $40 −$42 (-51%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-2%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-5%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 29¢ 24¢ $29 $24 −$4 (-16%)
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 9¢ 24¢ $9 $24 +$15 (+167%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-6%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $34 $12 −$22 (-66%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 59¢ 28¢ $23 $11 −$12 (-52%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $16 $10 −$6 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$48 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $17 +$2 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,769 −$1,396 -79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $56 −$22 -39%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 10 $240 −$35 -14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 4, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $1,026 −$1,026 -100%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 08 $127 −$5 -4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $27 +$169 +630%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $136 −$30 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $220 −$40 -18%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 04 $30 +$70 +228%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $125 −$125 -100%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 03 $309 +$100 +33%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,694 −$94 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Jun 03 $18 −$18 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 03 $460 −$20 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2,066 −$146 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 03 $632 +$15 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $5,091 −$3,175 -62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? Jun 03 $122 +$11 +9%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 03 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $819 −$216 -26%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 03 $39 −$39 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $347 −$347 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? Jun 03 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? Jun 03 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene May 28 $337 +$2 +1%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17? May 28 $20 +$80 +388%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 25 $254 +$10 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 24 $40 +$43 +107%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $70 −$32 -46%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $1,566 −$6 -0%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 11 $35 +$37 +105%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $19 +$81 +414%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 10 $14 −$14 -100%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 09 $53 −$3 -7%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 09 $61 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $70 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $14 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $52 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $156 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $78 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $236 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $79 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 9¢ $103 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 1¢ $103 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 6¢ $103 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 5¢ $103 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $23 16h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $79 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $39 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $46 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $50 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $92 16h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $167 36h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $160 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $34 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,057.23 · official $2,261.03 · 2682 history records